Oscar picks '06: Erin's supporting role

You loyal readers might remember when I launched this blog a year ago. Either way, I'll refresh your memory; the first entry in Crackity Jones' Diary was an Oscar predictions post. And you may have forgotten this, but I haven't: I predicted all but one of the winners correctly. (When, Academy? When are you going to give Scoresese a friggin' statue already?) In the year since our grand opening, Sharon and I have been blessed with the arrival of our daughter, Harper Rosine Moores. As a result, my movie budget (and time) went in the crapper. Actually, the baby has been crapping in my movie budget. I'm OK with that, but not OK with bringing you a less-than-informed opinion when it comes to Oscar picks. Fortunately, Senor Jones keeps his ear to the ground and discovered a kindred spirit/film buff right at work in the Stars and Stripes newsroom. I don't want to stretch this intro out longer than the typical bloated Oscar telecast, so without further ado I give you Ms. Erin McCann, the first guest author in Crackitytown:

Why me? I suspect it's because I prance around the Stripes office spouting random bits of movie trivia like some sort of breathing IMDB to anyone who makes the mistake of eye contact. I'm like a Tourette's patient, except movie trivia is my inappropriate profanity. Like, did you know Dan Futterman -- nominated for best adapted screenplay for "Capote" -- is Red Sox GM Theo Epstein's brother-in-law? You'll be the life of your Oscar party with that tidbit.

Anyway, because Sean's all busy with that miracle-of-life thing (Harper, by the way, being the name of nominee Catherine Keener's character in "Capote") he didn't get to see most of the movies this year. I, on the other hand, spend a large chunk of my free time with black-clad wannabe hipsters at the E Street theater. I've seen all of the major nominees with two exceptions: "Munich," (which I'll just file under "obligatory Spielberg nomination") and "Hustle & Flow" (which is in my Netflix queue, right under the five-disc "Veronica Mars" collection).

So whose asking price will skyrocket Monday morning? Who will get to add "Oscar winner" to their tagline in all the crappy movies they'll star in 20 years down the line? Behold, the nominees:

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, "Junebug"; "Catherine Keener, "Capote"; Frances McDormand, "North Country"; Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"; Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"

Should win: Amy Adams. It's a high-strung movie that could have easily collapsed under the weight of its own pretension. But it didn't, in large part thanks to performances like Adams'.

Will win: Probably Rachel Weisz, who's won most of the pre-Oscar awards. Keener could sneak in here, too, with a well-deserved win. Of course, I could be saying that because I love Harper Lee, but so does the Academy.

Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney, "Syriana"; Matt Dillon, "Crash"; Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man"; Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"; William Hurt, "A History of Violence"

Should win: I have nightmares every time I see William Hurt in a psycho-killer role. (Qu'est que c'est?) He's just so freaking good at it.

Will win: Clooney or Giamatti. This award is all about the consolation prize: Will it be Clooney, because he'll be shut out of all the other awards for "Good Night, and Good Luck"? Or will it be Giamatti, who has made a career out of being screwed over by Oscar? The Academy's probably feeling some guilt about that whole "Sideways" fiasco last year, so I'm going to go with Giamatti. His performance as Russell Crowe's ring-side champion is probably one of the best scenes committed to film this year.

Best Actress: Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"; Keira Knightly, "Pride and Prejudice"; Charlize Theron, "North Country"; Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"

Dench and Theron are obligatory nominees. And Knightly? Come on, give any British actress some Austen dialogue, a high-waisted dress, some come-hither curls and a dark and dreary moor, and she'll turn out a great performance. Throw in a character named "Mr. Darcy" and *I* could swoon with an Oscar-worthy performance.

This is a two-woman race between Huffman and Witherspoon. I am in awe of both performances, and Huffman was about to edge out Witherspoon's June Carter for my choice. But then "Walk the Line" came out on DVD this week and I've been watching it over and over again ... aww heck, I'm happy with either one. It's a total tossup.

Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"; Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"; Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"; David Straithairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"

Should win: Joaquin Phoenix. Call me a sentimental sucker, but how can you not reward the man who had the guts to not only play Johnny Cash but actually sing Johnny Cash? The dude deserves a pat on the back, and an Oscar, too.

Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman. Remember when Hoffman played the stoner dude in "Twister"? I'm betting most Academy voters don't, because their eyes are still stuck to the screen watching Hoffman's portrayal of Truman Capote.

What, no Heath Ledger? Nope. There's a bit of a "Brokeback" backlash this month, and I'm thinking the movie's not going to walk away with the scads of statuettes it's been nominated for. Ledger's great and all, but the other men were just better. Sidenote: In any other year, with any other field, David Straithairn would kick some serious ass in this category.

Best original screenplay: "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Match Point," "The Squid and the Whale," "Syriana"

Should win: "Good Night, and Good Luck." I have a feeling Clooney's going to get shafted in the major categories. Plus, his writing partner is the guy who played skinny anti-terror dude in "True Lies."

Will win: Oscar loves Paul Haggis, whose "Million Dollar Baby" shut out Scorsese's "Aviator" last year. Yeah, there's the matter of Clint Eastwood's involvement with the former, but still ... I harbor a grudge.

Best adapted screenplay: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "The Constant Gardener," "A History of Violence," "Munich"

I don't have a solid list of favorite books, but if I did, Annie Proulx's "Brokeback Mountain" and Capote's "In Cold Blood" would probably share top billing. "Capote" ought to take this award, but older Academy voters -- even those turned off by "the gay cowboy movie" -- may want to reward Larry McMurtry.

Best director: Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"; Bennett Miller, "Capote"; Paul Haggis, "Crash"; George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"; Steven Spielberg, "Munich"

Should win: George Clooney. Clooney uses a lot of tricks familiar to your average second-year film student, but the lack of complexity doesn't mean they don't work. The movie is a hermetically sealed, black-and-white-in-every-sense exercise in history, and Clooney deserves to be rewarded for that. He also gets points for casting Tate Donovan and Robert Downey Jr.

Will win: Ang Lee. I'm really thinking "Brokeback Mountain" is going to get shut out of the Best Picture award, and voters moved by its story will choose instead to reward Lee.

Best picture: "BrokebackMountain," "Capote," "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Munich"

Dark horse contender: "Crash." I hold Haggis personally responsible for Scorsese getting shafted last year. He wrote the screenplay for "Million Dollar Baby," which moved Clint Eastwood to direct such a great movie that Martin Scorsese YET AGAIN failed to win a best directing Oscar. Yeah, I'm still bugged by it. And I refuse to discount anything with Haggis' fingerprints on it. Plus, "Crash" was really good.